Damn, this is great news. Benenson Strategy Group for Jeff Merkley (9/7-9, likely voters, August in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (47)
Dave Brownlow (C): 6 (4)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
The full polling memo is below the fold, and do check it out if you like to read about good news. As you can see from Smith’s job approval ratings, he’s in a world of trouble: 70% of undecideds give him a negative job approval rating!
But why no mention of the McCain number? Obama at 49 but…? I hope that doesn’t mean they are hiding bad news.
Those numbers seem a little high for Brownlow, but I suppose Gordon Smith could be getting flack from the far right for votes on embryonic stem cell research and stances on issues like assisted suicide. I guess some people still want to control life and death situations. The poll is great and if true is welcome news.
to consider is that the sample for this poll wrapped up by Sept. 9; Sept. 10 is the date that Willamette Week released its expose on Gordon Smith (Prince of Peas) hiring illegal aliens to work his eastern Oregon agricultural operations. I don’t know if that’ll move a lot of votes to the Democrats (although if it moves right-wing nativist votes to the Constitution Party, I’ll take that, too), but it’s gotta help somehow. If anything, it’ll add more to his disapproval rating (and I don’t think anyone recovers in two months from a 61% disapproval).
The Blank Vote Initiative encourages you not to reward politicians who are part of the Coalition of the Willing to Wait. We need regime change NOW in America. And it’s time NOW to end the Occupation.
this race is a real tossup. The DSCC’s anti-Smith ads have been VERY effective. I think we can win here.
No way, no how, 2-3% at best…
It is the anti-adobe, and I can’t take it when adobe shuts down my entire computer to open a file.
In terms of the race, this is great news. I view this race as a real bellweather.
Question, which race do people think is more winnable right now, OR or MN-SEN? I think that’s a tough call. Both are strong GOP incumbents, and Merkley and Franken have their warts. But on the flip side, they’ve remained competitive and Obama should win both states with ease. Very tough to say. I want to say Coleman because I dislike him a great deal more than Smith, but I think it is probably Smith because his repeatedly low favorable ratings are really stark.
I already have this as our #6 best pickup opportunity. I said it awhile back and believe it now more than ever, Merkley may win this thing handily. Smith’s campaign reminds me of DeWine’s in 2006. He’s trying so hard to appeal to democrats and independents that he’s losing the support of his base. Granted I don’t think he can lose by 10+ as DeWine did, but a 5-8 point loss I can see happening.
http://politicalticker.blogs.c…
Damn good description of Palin.
With an anti-Merkley ad (I couldn’t tell about what because I had the sound off) but given Smith’s cash advantage, this is a very good sign!